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A method for quantifying the reliability of a failure mode and effects analysis (FMECA) method is developed. A treatment of the failure scenarios is used as an example to illustrate the application of the method. The original treatment and the treatment created by the proposed quantification method are compared in a qualitative way. It is observed that the treatment by the proposed quantification method results in more conservative and accurate failure scenarios. The proposed method is shown to be applicable to any FMECA treatment.


This paper presents a graphical technique to analyse, for a given limited quality of design, a systematic approach for a reliability estimator selection. It is based on an additional state, the number of times, needed for the determination of the reliability estimate and on an estimator associated with this state. The reliability estimator needs to be chosen such that the determination of its probability of an error, for the estimated reliability, is the easiest.


Expert elicitation is a common form of human judgement to obtain information from a panel of experts. In the context of reliability-based design, this article provides a method to obtain expert reliability estimates for lifetimes and reliability and technical data. We use the method to obtain expert reliability estimates to evaluate plant equipment lifetimes and technical data. A key insight of this paper is that we can obtain reliable estimates even if the degree of reliability of the experts does not meet our threshold of 0.90 confidence. We also demonstrate that un-peer-reviewed publications, e.g., conference papers, provide subject-matter specific expert reliability estimates and can be used to augment the available pool of expertise. 84d34552a1